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基于案例推理的复杂工程工期预测优化方法.rar

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    硕士学位论文基于案例推理的复杂工程工期预测优化方法姓 名:卢科宇学 号:1531113所在院系:经济与管理学院学科门类:管理学学科专业:管理科学与工程指导教师:李永奎二〇一七年十二月A dissertation submitted toTongji University in conformity with the requirements forthe degree of Master of ManagementDecember, 2017Candidate: Lu KeyuStudent Number: 1531113School/Department:School of Economics and Management Discipline: Management Science Major: Management Science and EngineeringSupervisor: Li YongkuiA Revised Case-based Reasoning Approach to Forecasting Schedule for Complex Projects基基于案例推理的复杂工程工期预测优化方法卢卢科宇同同济大学5cm左右5cm左右学位论文版权使用授权书本人完全了解同济大学关于收集、保存、使用学位论文的规定,同意如下各项内容:按照学校要求提交学位论文的印刷本和电子版本;学校有权保存学位论文的印刷本和电子版,并采用影印、缩印、扫描、数字化或其它手段保存论文;学校有权提供目录检索以及提供本学位论文全文或者部分的阅览服务;学校有权按有关规定向国家有关部门或者机构送交论文的复印件和电子版;在不以赢利为目的的前提下,学校可以适当复制论文的部分或全部内容用于学术活动。学位论文作者签名:年 月 日 同济大学学位论文原创性声明本人郑重声明:所呈交的学位论文,是本人在导师指导下,进行研究工作所取得的成果。除文中已经注明引用的内容外,本学位论文的研究成果不包含任何他人创作的、已公开发表或者没有公开发表的作品的内容。对本论文所涉及的研究工作做出贡献的其他个人和集体,均已在文中以明确方式标明。本学位论文原创性声明的法律责任由本人承担。学位论文作者签名:年 月 日同济大学 硕士论文 摘要I摘要中国经济的发展、城镇化的快速进程,催生了一批复杂工程建设项目的产生,数量日益增多、规模日趋庞大、复杂性日渐明显。但由于复杂工程具有建设周期长,涉及利益主体多,不确定性因素多,对社会影响大的特点,给项目的管控和治理带来了巨大的挑战。由于传统的项目管理方式不再适用,管理者在对待新的项目时,往往低估项目的复杂性,造成了投资超支和进度延期等目标失控的现象经常发生。因此,找到一种合理的方式客观地管理复杂工程是至关重要的。基于此,本文针对项目前期复杂工程工期估算的方法进行了深入的研究,综合实践过程中项目管理者的做法,采用人工智能(Artificial Intelligence)领域的案例推理(Case-based Reasoning)概念构建模型。将案例推理的相关理论和复杂建设项目的特征结合,运用定性与定量的方式、理论分析与实证研究相结合的方式,按照案例推理流程--案例表达、案例检索、案例重用、案例修正、案例保留五个方面层层深入分析,构建针对复杂工程的工期估算模型。最后以摩天大楼这类复杂工程作为实证研究的案例,选取 1993-2014 年国内 25 个项目构建案例库,验证 CBR 工期估算模型的运行效果,最终结果显示 CBR 工期误差 4.16%,远低于传统工期估算误差 9%-16%。该研究改进了复杂工程工期估算方法,其结果可以为业主和承包商提供更准确的决策判断依据,有利于进度管理和资源配置。具体而言,论文有针对性地开展了以下研究工作:(1)首先对复杂工程产生的背景进行阐述,以及目前复杂工程项目管理存在的挑战,引出本文论点的意义。(2)系统地梳理复杂工程研究热点、国内外在工期估算方法的演变过程,案例推理理论体系的发展过程、应用领域,在理论层面为后文的案例推理模型提供支撑,同时通过理论的研究发现目前复杂工程、案例推理研究的空白点。(3)主要分析案例推理的基本原理、基本步骤等理论体系,分析每个阶段的关键技术以及研究热点,构建案例推理工期估算框架。(4)在前半部分理论知识的基础上,以摩天大楼这一类复杂工程项目为例,利用案例推理估算工期模型进行估算,具体过程如下:通过相关性分析等数学方式降指标维度、K-NN 方式检索案例、专家评估法给予指标权重、主成分分析(PCA )+ 线性回归(MRA)进行案例修正,并对其结果进行深入分析。总结归纳案例推理应用的优势,可为日后的复杂项目的工期估算提供有效的借鉴和参考。本文利用 CBR 构建的工期估算模型研究结果一方面极大丰富了工期管理的同济大学 硕士学位论文 基于案例推理的复杂工程工期预测优化方法II理论知识。另一方面,案例推理发展至今,应用领域广泛,但在工程项目工期估算领域还处于空白,通过本研究,扩大了案例推理的应用领域。在实际建造过程中,也提出了新的工期估算方法,为同类型项目的管理提供了借鉴意义。关键词:复杂工程、工期估算、案例推理、人工智能Tongji University Master of Engineering AbstractIIIAbstractComplex projects have become a critical supporting pillar for economic and social development, such as railroads, bridges, skyscrapers and so on. Especially in recent years, the number and the scale of complex construction projects is increasing. Also, the complexity is becoming more and more obvious. Compared with the traditional projects, the complex projects have the characteristics below: the long duration, the high complexity, the more participants, the important influence on society and more uncertainty factors. In this case, the traditional project management methods are no longer applicable. Besides the project managers always underestimate the complexity of projects, resulting in investment overruns and progress delays. Therefore, it is vital to find a reasonable way to manage complex projects objectively.This study constructs conceptual case-based reasoning model to estimate the schedule for complex projects in the early stage. What’s more, this study also analyzes the revolution of the relevant knowledge about CBR and duration estimation method in the general. During the process of constrcuting model, based on the case-based reasoning process - case expression, case retrieval, case reuse, case revision, we combine qualitative methods and quantitative methods; theoretical analysis method and empirical research method to build the model. At last, we take the skyscrapers as an example to test the model. The result shows that the estimated error in this model (4.16%) is significantly lower than that in the traditional models (9%-16%). It justifies the application of extending CBR in the estimation of project schedule for megaprojects. It also provides a reliable and accurate scheduling tool to help owners better allocating and managing resources in the early stage of a megaproject.Specifically, the paper has the following research work:(1) Firstly, in order to prove the practicality of this paper, we analyze the background of complex engineering, and the challenge of the curent project management.(2) Secondly, we analyze the research hotpot of the complex projects, the evolution of the estimation duration method and the development of CBR in domestic and overseas. (3) Thirdly, this part focuses on the basic principles of the case based reasoning, involving the analysis of the key technologies of each stage、framwork of buidling Tongji University Master of Engineering AbstractIVcase-based reasoning model and the research hotspots in the future.(4) Based on the theoretical knowledge above, we take the skyscrapers as an example to test the model. The detailed process is below: use correlation analysis to reduce dimesion of attibutes、K-NN to retrieve cases、expert analysis to weight case attributes、PCA+MRA to revise cases. According to the results,analyzing the process and summarizing the advantages of case-based reasoning,to provide an effective tool for the future project.On the one hand, this study enriches the theoretical knowledge of duration estimation management. On the other hand, it is still blank in the field of project duration estimation. And through this research, the application of case reasoning is expanded. In the real construction process, a new method of duration estimation is proposed, which provides reference for the management of the same type of project.Key Words: Case-based Reasoning, Duration Forecasting, Complex projects, Artificial Intelligence
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